The Ministry of Economic Development predicts a fall in Russia’s GDP due to the imposed sanctions by 8.8% in 2022 in the base case scenario, expecting a positive trend of 1.3% next year already. In the years 2024 and 2025, the ministry expects growth of the Russian economy by 4.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Under the conservative forecast scenario, the scale of the crisis is seen deeper: a decline in Russia’s GDP by 12.4% in 2022, and by 1.1% in 2023.
At the end of 2022, the ministry tentatively predicts inflation above 20% in the base case scenario, expecting it to decrease to 6.2% at the end of 2023. At the same time, the target of 4%, according to the estimation reported, is planned to be reached as early as 2024.