28.2 C
Sunday, June 26, 2022



RUB - Russian Ruble



Sberbank improved forecast for the Russia’s GDP dynamics

Sberbank analysts have improved their forecasts for the dynamics of Russian GDP and do not rule out a shift in inflation forecasts towards an optimistic scenario. Instead of an economic contraction of 13% in 2022, an 8% contraction is expected under the base case scenario, while a decline of 13% is now considered a pessimistic one. The forecast has been changed taking into account the relatively good results of February and March.

The optimistic scenario assumes a reduction in Russia’s GDP this year by only 5%, and this scenario is also not excluded. A quarterly decline in the economy is expected in the current and next quarters, while the situation is supposed to stabilize in the Q4 2022. All of Sberbank’s scenarios assume the recovery of the Russian economy in 2023, or rather, its adaptation to the new reality.

In addition to this, Sberbank does not rule out a rapid slowdown in inflation. The preconditions for this are the observed decrease in the expenses of Russians, as well as the absence of a shortage of goods. The baseline scenario of SberCIB Investment Research provides for inflation in Russia at the level of 20% in 2022 and 8% in 2023, the optimistic scenario expects 16% and 6%, respectively. It is possible that the forecasts will shift towards the optimistic scenario as early as the end of May.

Related Articles

Forecast for a decline in GDP for 2022 improved according to Bank of Russia

Analysts polled by the Central Bank of Russia improved the forecast for a decline in GDP for 2022, from minus 9.2% to minus 7.5%....

Russia’s key rate cut to 14 percent

The Bank of Russia has decided to cut its benchmark interest rate by 3 percentage points, to 14% per annum, and sees room for...

The Ministry of Economic Development published new forecasts for Russia’s economy in 2022-2025

The Ministry of Economic Development predicts a fall in Russia's GDP due to the imposed sanctions by 8.8% in 2022 in the base case...