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Sberbank improved forecast for the Russia’s GDP dynamics

Sberbank analysts have improved their forecasts for the dynamics of Russian GDP and do not rule out a shift in inflation forecasts towards an optimistic scenario. Instead of an economic contraction of 13% in 2022, an 8% contraction is expected under the base case scenario, while a decline of 13% is now considered a pessimistic one. The forecast has been changed taking into account the relatively good results of February and March.

The optimistic scenario assumes a reduction in Russia’s GDP this year by only 5%, and this scenario is also not excluded. A quarterly decline in the economy is expected in the current and next quarters, while the situation is supposed to stabilize in the Q4 2022. All of Sberbank’s scenarios assume the recovery of the Russian economy in 2023, or rather, its adaptation to the new reality.

In addition to this, Sberbank does not rule out a rapid slowdown in inflation. The preconditions for this are the observed decrease in the expenses of Russians, as well as the absence of a shortage of goods. The baseline scenario of SberCIB Investment Research provides for inflation in Russia at the level of 20% in 2022 and 8% in 2023, the optimistic scenario expects 16% and 6%, respectively. It is possible that the forecasts will shift towards the optimistic scenario as early as the end of May.

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